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We've been telling ourselves a story about the subscription bubble is bursting — here's what replaces it that no longer matches the data. Time to update.
If you talk to the practitioners actually shipping in this space, they sound notably less excited and notably more confident than the hype cycle suggests. That contrast — quieter, more grounded enthusiasm — is usually the signal you want.
Skeptics will point out — correctly — that we've seen similar inflection-point claims fizzle. The honest answer is that you don't need certainty to act, just better expected value. The downside of moving too early in this category is…
What's tricky is that the leading indicators are noisy. Vendor revenue is up, but so is churn. Talent moves both ways. Job postings list contradictory requirements. The strongest signal is what experienced practitioners do with their own…
The teams that will look smart in eighteen months aren't necessarily the ones with the strongest opinions today — they're the ones running the cheapest experiments now.
We've been telling ourselves a story about the subscription bubble is bursting — here's what replaces it that no longer matches the data.…